Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FIL prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-02-09 2.609561 2.785586 2.973696 3.190753 3.435676 3.705133 4.026297
2025-02-16 2.325029 2.559270 2.823255 3.146444 3.536661 3.999728 4.602223
2025-02-23 2.151634 2.417773 2.728821 3.126025 3.630384 4.265464 5.154342
2025-03-02 2.020309 2.305628 2.648453 3.100934 3.699413 4.491663 5.674836
2025-03-09 1.915769 2.213864 2.580239 3.077346 3.758340 4.700884 6.196332
2025-03-16 1.836130 2.145249 2.532859 3.072060 3.835105 4.937115 6.794500
2025-03-23 1.784747 2.107608 2.520489 3.109357 3.970886 5.272392 7.617918
2025-03-30 1.709534 2.033909 2.454507 3.065184 3.980598 5.411048 8.127986
2025-04-06 1.641504 1.965629 2.391001 3.018407 3.979616 5.528948 8.622645
2025-04-13 1.568599 1.887236 2.309130 2.938728 3.919263 5.537869 8.900794
2025-04-20 1.539391 1.865862 2.304208 2.970651 4.036482 5.866592 9.937399
2025-04-27 1.520894 1.857742 2.316699 3.028457 4.200056 6.302461 11.371060
2025-05-04 1.497503 1.842399 2.318829 3.071774 4.346377 6.736974 13.015747
2025-05-11 1.455503 1.799320 2.278648 3.045901 4.369977 6.932061 14.104384
2025-05-18 1.418779 1.762122 2.245112 3.028036 4.405453 7.157237 15.406264
2025-05-25 1.383000 1.724839 2.209599 3.004381 4.427524 7.356783 16.747496
2025-06-01 1.349876 1.690113 2.176273 2.982019 4.449467 7.559771 18.245633
2025-06-08 1.323256 1.663767 2.154327 2.977005 4.503610 7.848142 20.326764
2025-06-15 1.308263 1.653652 2.156427 3.012385 4.639786 8.365824 24.010138
2025-06-22 1.275411 1.616297 2.115045 2.970481 4.616758 8.472022 25.738019
2025-06-29 1.243644 1.579647 2.073468 2.926085 4.584933 8.550425 27.438563
2025-07-06 1.206021 1.533410 2.015532 2.850405 4.482676 8.421100 27.727700
2025-07-13 1.194598 1.525697 2.017619 2.880734 4.605707 8.949201 33.444118